Greece: Default Probability At 76% (And Growing)

The latest data from 5Y CDS on Greek bonds imply a default probability equal to 76%, and it’s still very low

(original publishing date: 01/30/15)

Considering that the first point of Syriza’s political program is something like: “We promise that, once elected, Greek debt payments will be frozen until the economic recovery arrives” (just read it as: “We promise Greece will default”), we are surprised to see such a slow reaction from the CDS market:

This value implies a default probability equal to 76%, that’s still really low and we expect it to reach 90% very soon.

And farewell to the national banking system: