The latest data from 5Y CDS on Greek bonds imply a default probability equal to 76%, and it’s still very low
(original publishing date: 01/30/15)
Considering that the first point of Syriza’s political program is something like: “We promise that, once elected, Greek debt payments will be frozen until the economic recovery arrives” (just read it as: “We promise Greece will default”), we are surprised to see such a slow reaction from the CDS market:
This value implies a default probability equal to 76%, that’s still really low and we expect it to reach 90% very soon.
And farewell to the national banking system: