This is not a joke, but what’s happening in the european stock market in these months surely deserves to be mocked: how can earning growth expectations decline by 7 percentage points in only 2 months ?
(original publishing date 05-15-14)
While european stock markets are looking better as time goes by and european bonds are being bought by literally anyone in the bond market, you may want to keep in mind one “small” thing:
How healthy does european stock market look to you ?
Two months ago the earning growth expectation of Q1 2014 for the index EuroStoxx 600 was above 9%.
Now the same indicator is around 2.5%.
What happened in the last 2 months ? What hit the economy so badly ?
Now this is the scary part: nothing really important happened in the Euro Area in the last 2 months, literally nothing.
The economy is doing bad as before, recovery is weak as before, inflation is low as before, unemployment is bad as before, etc.
Should we think that the 9% of last March was only a bad joke ? Or is the microeconomic european world dying much faster than the macroeconomic one ?
One last thing: if ECB will ever decide to start a Quantitative Easing, european financial sector may explode and reach new record highs just like we saw at Wall Street following Fed’s QE. And if the chart posted above won’t look better in the next months, well, then the risk of creating stock bubbles is pretty high.