After analyzing the estimates made by Société Générale on the issue, it’s now time to see those made by UBS on the impact of lower oil prices on the world economy
Our aim here is to give you the highest possible number of sources to answer the question: “Are lower oil prices good or bad for the economy ?”.
Well, today it’s UBS turn:
In 2015, a decline in oil prices of 10 $/barrel (which means around 80 $/barrel, a price that is way higher than the current one) seems to lead to a positive shift in world GDP, with the usual exception of oil exporters.
If we sum up these results with what Société Générale argues (you can see their data here), we seem to get to one fondamental point: over the short-term, lower oil prices are good news only for oil importers, while it’s bad news for oil exporters.
We still need to understand whether this is true or not in the long-term, and that seems to be a harder question to answer.